June 10, 2016
Unless you have been living on Mars for the past few months, you’ll be all too aware of the impending EU Referendum that is due to take place on the 23rd June. Of course, the big question is what way will the masses vote?
It is all a little too close to call at the moment, but analysts would suggest that the Leave campaign are slightly ahead in the current polls – however we all know how much can change in the space of a few weeks, or even days.
However, whether the result is to stay in the EU or leave, there are a few more scenarios that will need to be played out, as discussed by Julian Wolfson in the Summer Odey View.
Wolfson, co-head of Research & Political Strategist suggests the following four scenarios, depending on which way the vote goes:
- Big Out Vote
- Little Out Vote
- Little Remain Vote
- Big Remain Vote
What do all of these potential vote scenarios mean?
If the country were to vote Out, whether that turns out to be a big or little out vote, it is to be expected that there will be no Prime Minister and possibly no Government according to Wolfson. David Cameron has been very vocal about the fact that he is all for remaining, whilst it’s no secret that the current government in individual terms are split. Even if the vote is out, the process only starts once Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union is served, which kicks off the two year exit period, and prior to this a new government and PM will have a number of questions to answer as well as negotiations to make before the exit process is actually started.
If the vote turns out to be a Little Out vote, the general thought from Wolfson is that the government will take their time, hoping to force or trigger a negative reaction right here in the UK; using the media and with the connecting financial markets, eventually pushing through a second vote to be held, with the aim of securing an In vote. Not only will this give the chance for a negative spin on an Out move and possibly force the hands of the British public to vote In, it will also help deter other countries from also trying to leave the EU. Wolfson goes on to state that he believes that the Little Out vote is the one with the maximum potential for the EU to play hard ball with the UK.
If the vote is a Little Remain In result, chances are strong that the discontent will carry on rumbling in the background, however Wolfson isn’t sure whether this would include a 2nd referendum straight away, but does state there is the potential for another referendum if the EU construction changed significantly in the future.
Wolfson also believes that in the main, the same applies for a Large Remain Vote with the current EU issues continuing.
Currently it is too close (and too hard) to call the possible outcome of this referendum, but we will be tuning in to watch the results on the 23rd June – will you?
Image credit: https://i.ytimg.com/vi/M0HVQaNAcH0/hqdefault.jpg